Much-hyped Turnout Record Fails To Materialize, Convenience Voting Fails To Boost Balloting

Contact: Curtis Gans, 202-885-6295, 703-304-1283, 540-822-5292, gans [at] american [dot] edu, csnag [at] eols [dot] com
Jon Hussey, AU Media Relations, 202-885-5935 or hussey [at] american [dot] edu

WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 6, 2008)—Despite lofty predictions by some academics,
pundits, and practitioners that voter turnout would reach levels not seen since the turn of the last
century, the percentage of eligible citizens casting ballots in the 2008 presidential election stayed at virtually the same relatively high level as it reached in the polarized election of 2004.
According to a report and turnout projection released today by American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE) and based, in part, on nearly final but unofficial vote
tabulations as compiled by the Associated Press as of 7 p.m. Wednesday, November 5, the
percentage of Americans who cast ballots for president in this year’s presidential election will reach between 126.5 million and 128.5 million when all votes have been counted by early next month.

If this prediction proves accurate, turnout would be at either exactly the same level as in 2004 or, at most, one percentage point higher (or between 60.7 percent and 61.7 percent). If the rate of voting exceeds 61.0 percent of eligibles, turnout will have been the highest since 1964. This projection is based on the 121.5 million tabulated votes compiled by the Associated Press plus some estimate— partially based on experience with post-election vote counting in previous elections and partially based on factors specific to this election, most notably the spread of balloting prior to Election Day—on how many ballots are still to be counted.

A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout. The percentage of eligible citizens voting Republican declined to 28.7 percent down 1.3 percentage points from 2004. Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 percentage points from 28.7 percent of eligibles to 31.3 percent. It was the seventh straight increase in the Democratic share of the eligible vote since the party’s share dropped to 22.7 percent of eligibles in 1980.

Of the 47 states and the District of Columbia included in this report, turnout was up in only 22
states and D.C. (Because of the extensive uncounted no excuse absentee balloting in Alaska and California and all-mail voting in Oregon and most of the state of Washington, those states are not included in this report.)

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